Brad Jackson is back, and that continuity at quarterback is the single biggest reason Texas State's offense still projects as the strength of the roster heading into 2026. The portal churn around him was real — 21 departures included quarterback Keldric Luster (1.9 PPA) heading to Ball State and Holden Geriner (1.1 PPA) leaving for Pitt, while running back Jaylen Jenkins (1.7 PPA) also exited undeclared — but none of that touches Jackson's job. The bigger concern is what's around him: the offense is QB-carried and fragile, with just half the offensive line and half the target share back, meaning Jackson will be asked to elevate a retooled cast rather than simply distribute to established playmakers. Defensively, the picture is murkier. That side of the ball was already the weaker unit, and now it has to replace pressure production up front, with edge attrition marking the front seven as a group to watch even as new pass-rusher Jason Patterson (2.0 PPA) arrives from Texas Southern to help fill the gap.

JP+ projects 5.7 wins, a number that reflects an offense expected to carry the load again while a bottom-tier defense tries to hold up behind a retooled front. Given the schedule — road trips to Texas, Boise State, and San Diego State against home dates with Utah State, Colorado State, and Incarnate Word — the path to bowl eligibility runs through those winnable home games and at least one upset on the road. If the offensive line gels quickly and Jackson has enough around him to mask the personnel losses, six or seven wins is realistic. If the front seven can't replace its pass rush and the line reset drags early, this could look more like last year's 6-6 with less margin for error.