JP+ One-Sheet
Texas State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.0Team Thesis
Texas State Leans on Brad Jackson Again While the Trenches Get Rebuilt. Brad Jackson is back, and that continuity at quarterback is the single biggest reason Texas State's offense still projects as the strength of the roster heading into 2026.
Model Profile
#82
JP+ Rank
#46
Offense
#113
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
6.5
Market
6.0
JP+
6.8
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
41% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 65%. Collapse risk 15% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 86% to 33%.
Bull Case
8-3If the offensive line gels quickly and Jackson has enough around him to mask the personnel losses, six or seven wins is realistic.
Bear Case
5-6If the front seven can't replace its pass rush and the line reset drags early, this could look more like last year's 6-6 with less margin for er…
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |