JP+ One-Sheet
Texas State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
5.7
Model Profile
#81
JP+ Rank
#45
Off Adj
#114
Def Adj
Overall
-2.4
Offense
+2.0
Defense
-3.9
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
5.7
JP+
5.3
SP+
Bowl Path57%
Fast Start70%
Collapse Risk7%
Path Shape
Early equity
70% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 57%. Collapse risk 7% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 84% to 33%.
Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Boise State | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Fresno State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Texas State | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Colorado State | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 |