Texas

Arch Manning's late-game heroics against Michigan transformed him from heir apparent to centerpiece, and now Texas must prove it's built a championship roster around its star quarterback rather than just a highlight reel. The Longhorns grade out 11th nationally at +18.0 points with a top-11 defense (+9.3) anchoring the profile, though special teams remain a glaring weakness at 91st nationally. The portal brought meaningful upgrades including Auburn receiver Cam Coleman (32.5 PPA) and Arizona State running back Raleek Brown (31.3 PPA) to replace departed wideouts DeAndre Moore Jr. and Parker Livingstone, while new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp inherits a unit that lost minimal production from last year's 9-3 campaign.

JP+ projects 8.0 wins for Texas in a loaded SEC slate that includes road trips to LSU and Texas A&M plus a home date with Ohio State — well short of the championship expectations swirling around Manning and company. The gap stems from offensive continuity concerns despite Manning's return, as the Longhorns lost significant skill position talent and face questions about whether their revamped receiving corps can consistently move the ball against elite defenses. If Manning's development matches the hype and the defense maintains its elite level under Muschamp, Texas has the talent to compete for SEC and national titles. If the offensive transitions prove bumpy, they're looking at another solid-but-not-spectacular season that falls short of the Manning-fueled expectations.