Texas

Arch Manning's clutch performance against Michigan in late-game action thrust him squarely into the spotlight as Texas enters 2026 with championship aspirations built around their high-profile quarterback. The Longhorns grade out 11th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at +17.3 points, powered by a stout defense that ranks ninth (+10.7) while the offense sits 17th (+6.9). They added significant firepower through the portal, gaining 114.3 PPA from 19 arrivals headlined by Auburn receiver Cam Coleman (32.5 PPA), Arizona State running back Raleek Brown (31.3 PPA), and Wake Forest wideout Sterling Berkhalter (24.2 PPA). The defense gets new leadership from coordinator Will Muschamp, who replaces Pete Kwiatkowski after arriving from Colorado.

JP+ projects 7.7 wins for Texas, well under the market's 9.5-win total, creating a 46% expected value bet on the under. The schedule features brutal road tests at LSU and Texas A&M plus a home date with Ohio State that will determine whether this group can match their preseason hype. Manning has the supporting cast with transfer back Hollywood Smothers joining Brown in the backfield and Coleman leading a retooled receiving corps after the departures of DeAndre Moore Jr. to Colorado and Parker Livingstone to Oklahoma. If Manning lives up to his billing and Muschamp's defense maintains its elite level, Texas has the pieces for a genuine title run. If the quarterback hype outpaces production, they're looking at another solid but unfulfilling season in the loaded SEC.