JP+ One-Sheet
Texas
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.9Team Thesis
Texas Heads Into 2026 With Arch Manning at the Center of Everything. The stage is set for Arch Manning, and after his high-profile late-game showing against Michigan pushed him into the national spotlight, every conversation about Texas now runs thr…
Model Profile
#8
JP+ Rank
#18
Offense
#8
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
9.5
Market
7.9
JP+
8.2
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
37% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 95%. Collapse risk 35% (7 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 94% to 41%.
Bull Case
9-3If Manning's supporting cast gels quickly and the pass-catching room led by Coleman and Berkhalter finds rhythm early, this looks like a complet…
Bear Case
6-6If not, Texas is still very good, but it's a team defined by one player's ascension rather than a fully formed contender.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Florida | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.9 |