Tennessee

Tennessee's loaded offense lights up scoreboards, but quarterback uncertainty and pass defense concerns cloud College Football Playoff aspirations. The Volunteers grade out 14th nationally at +15.4 points per game, powered by an elite offense that ranks seventh at +10.2 but undermined by a defense that sits just 35th at +2.5. The offensive firepower took a hit when Chris Brazzell II departed for the NFL Draft after contributing 58.5 PPA, while the quarterback room shifted with Nico Iamaleava's departure and Ryan Staub's arrival from Colorado. New defensive coordinator Jim Knowles takes over from Tim Banks, inheriting a unit that must improve its pass coverage to complement the explosive attack.

JP+ projects 7.8 wins for Tennessee, with the gap between offensive potential and defensive limitations defining their season trajectory. The Volunteers face structural continuity challenges across multiple units, from offensive line replacements to edge pressure sustainability on defense, creating above-normal uncertainty around their ceiling. Home dates against LSU and Texas represent the toughest tests, while Kentucky, Kennesaw State, and Furman provide opportunities to build momentum. If the new signal-caller can maximize the returning offensive weapons and Knowles stabilizes the pass defense, Tennessee could challenge for double-digit wins and playoff consideration — but quarterback growing pains or defensive regression could leave them fighting for bowl positioning in a loaded SEC.