JP+ One-Sheet
Tennessee
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.4Team Thesis
Tennessee Leans on Firepower and a New Quarterback While the Defense Rebuilds Up Front. Tennessee's offseason theme is simple: score first, sort out the rest later.
Model Profile
#19
JP+ Rank
#7
Offense
#44
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
7.5
Market
7.4
JP+
7.9
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.1 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#14
Rated coverage83%
Candidate members90
Rated players75
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path91%
4-2 start81%
Collapse risk9%
81% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 91%. Collapse risk 9% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk11: 83% to 29%.
Bull Case
9-3If Knowles gets consistent pressure from a retooled front and the passing game stays efficient without last year's top target, this group can pl…
Bear Case
6-6If the offensive line or edge rush lags instead, 7.4 wins could be the ceiling rather than the floor.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Florida | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.9 |