TCU

The Horned Frogs' path to contention hinges on whether Harvard transfer Jaden Craig can protect the football better than his predecessors while commanding a veteran roster primed for one final push. TCU grades out as the 46th-ranked team nationally with a +2.5 rating, buoyed by a defense that ranks 38th (+2.2) but dragged down by an offense that sits just 51st (+1.1) and special teams that rank a troubling 90th. The departure of quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana via the portal created the opening for Craig, while new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis arrives from UConn to replace Kendal Briles and install a system designed around ball security.

JP+ projects 5.8 wins for TCU, well below market expectations that likely factor in the veteran talent returning from an 8-4 campaign. The gap stems largely from offensive continuity concerns and the uncertainty surrounding Craig's ability to translate Ivy League success to Big 12 competition, particularly against defenses like Utah's at home and road tests at Texas Tech and Arizona. If Craig minimizes mistakes and Sammis maximizes the returning skill position talent around Jeremy Scott, the South Alabama transfer who brings 12.3 PPA at receiver, this group has the pieces for a conference title run. If the turnover demons persist and the offense struggles to find rhythm under new leadership, TCU could fall well short of expectations in a loaded Big 12.