JP+ One-Sheet

TCU

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

6.5

Team Thesis

TCU Bets on a Harvard Transfer and Fewer Giveaways to Break Through in the Big 12. The defining theme is straightforward: TCU believes it has the pieces to win the Big 12 if it simply stops beating itself.

Model Profile

#50

JP+ Rank

#55

Offense

#30

Defense

+5.1

Overall

+1.2

Offense

+4.1

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

6.5

Market

6.5

JP+

7.4

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.0 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#48

Rated coverage79%

Candidate members68

Rated players54

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path76%

4-2 start61%

Collapse risk9%

61% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 76%. Collapse risk 9% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.0 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 86% to 45%.

Bull Case

8-4

If Craig protects the ball and the offensive line holds up as expected, this group's floor is a bowl season and its ceiling includes real conten…

Bear Case

5-7

If the turnovers that occasionally undercut last year's team resurface, or the receiving corps takes longer than expected to gel, 6.5 wins could…

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
UCF	6.9	5.5	6.0
Houston	6.7	8.5	7.4
TCU	6.5	6.5	7.4