JP+ One-Sheet
TCU
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.6
Model Profile
#42
JP+ Rank
#52
Off Adj
#30
Def Adj
Overall
+4.5
Offense
+1.1
Defense
+3.8
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
6.6
JP+
7.1
SP+
Bowl Path76%
Fast Start62%
Collapse Risk8%
Path Shape
Early equity
62% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 76%. Collapse risk 8% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.0 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 84% to 46%.
Big 12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| Utah | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| Kansas State | 7.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| Arizona | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UCF | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| TCU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| Kansas | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Cincinnati | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Houston | 6.5 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| Arizona State | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Baylor | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 |