The defining theme is straightforward: TCU believes it has the pieces to win the Big 12 if it simply stops beating itself. Josh Hoover is gone to Indiana after producing 158.1 PPA, and the job now belongs to Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer tasked with running a Gordon Sammis offense in place of Kendal Briles, who left for the same role at Michigan. Sammis arrives from UConn, while the defense keeps its returning coordinator and the stable identity that made it the better side of the ball a year ago. The offense projects as roughly average, the defense above average, and special teams below average, which is the same formula that got TCU to 8-4 last season. The portal class did more subtracting than adding — 14 departures worth 160.6 PPA against 12 arrivals worth 12.3 PPA — with receiver Jeremy Scott from South Alabama the headline addition and losses at tight end and cornerback thinning depth around the edges. Offensive line continuity sits at 71 percent, which gives Craig a foundation, even as the receiving corps replaces Eric McAlister and Joseph Manjack IV and the backfield moves on from Kevorian Barnes.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins, a notably more cautious number than the ceiling this roster's talent suggests, driven largely by the uncertainty of installing a new quarterback and a new play-caller in the same offseason. The schedule doesn't do Craig any favors early, with road trips to Texas Tech and Arizona sandwiched around a home date with Utah, while West Virginia, Arkansas State and Grambling at home offer a more reasonable runway to build cohesion. If Craig protects the ball and the offensive line holds up as expected, this group's floor is a bowl season and its ceiling includes real contention in the Big 12. If the turnovers that occasionally undercut last year's team resurface, or the receiving corps takes longer than expected to gel, 6.5 wins could prove generous rather than conservative.