Blake Anderson takes over a Southern Miss program that won seven games last year but now faces a genuinely uncertain roster underneath a familiar face at quarterback. Braylon Braxton returns as the starter, which matters, but the receiving corps he throws to does not: Tychaun Chapman, Jaylin Carter, and Jermane Hayes all left for Memphis, wiping out a big chunk of last year's target share. The offensive line is largely turning over too, and the transfer haul brought in bodies more than proven difference-makers — Mario Sanders II arrives from Illinois, and defensive lineman Josh Johnson, the headline addition at 16.0 PPA, actually profiles as a front-seven piece as much as an offensive fix. That defense, which JP+ still grades as below average rather than bad, lost real pressure and coverage pieces up front and in the back end, and the ecosystem around this roster reads as fragile even with a proven head coach steering it. The offense and special teams both project near the bottom of the league, which is the honest starting point for year one under new leadership.

JP+ pegs Southern Miss at 4.8 projected wins, a number shaped by real continuity questions — zero returning QB production share company aside, 57% offensive line continuity, and a defense that lost significant edge and coverage value are the kind of details that widen the range of outcomes here rather than narrow it. The schedule offers a path: home dates with South Alabama and Alcorn State, plus a trip to ULM, represent the most realistic win sources, while road games at Auburn, Tulane, and Louisiana Tech look like clear losses on paper. If Braxton finds quick chemistry with a retooled receiver room and the defensive front holds up despite the attrition, this group could push past that 4.8 mark and into bowl contention. If the offensive line or secondary struggles to gel in year one under Anderson, a step back toward five or six wins is the more likely outcome.