JP+ One-Sheet
Southern Miss
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
5.3Team Thesis
Southern Miss Brings Back Braxton but Rebuilds Almost Everything Around Him. Blake Anderson takes over a Southern Miss program that won seven games last year but now faces a genuinely uncertain roster underneath a familiar face at quarterback.
Model Profile
#119
JP+ Rank
#122
Offense
#108
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
5.3
JP+
3.7
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
84% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 42%. Collapse risk 0% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 97% to 6%.
Bull Case
7-5If Braxton finds quick chemistry with a retooled receiver room and the defensive front holds up despite the attrition, this group could push pas…
Bear Case
4-8If the offensive line or secondary struggles to gel in year one under Anderson, a step back toward five or six wins is the more likely outcome.
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| South Alabama | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Southern Miss | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.3 |