JP+ One-Sheet
Southern Miss
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
4.8
Model Profile
#125
JP+ Rank
#125
Off Adj
#113
Def Adj
Overall
-12.6
Offense
-6.6
Defense
-3.8
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
4.8
JP+
2.6
SP+
Bowl Path28%
Fast Start76%
Collapse Risk1%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
76% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 28%. Collapse risk 1% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 96% to 4%.
Sun Belt Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Marshall | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Appalachian State | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Troy | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Old Dominion | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| South Alabama | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Southern Miss | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Georgia State | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| ULM | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 |