Brian Hartline takes over a program coming off a 9-3 season, and the defining question is what happens under center now that Byrum Brown has left for Auburn. Brown accounted for the bulk of the offense's production a year ago, and the new signal-caller inherits a receiver room that's been almost entirely remade — Keshaun Singleton and Jeremiah Koger followed Brown out the door to Auburn, while Armani Winfield (Colorado State), Arhmad Branch (Purdue), and Cameron Seldon (Virginia Tech) arrive via the portal to replace them. The offensive line returns at a healthy 79 percent, which offers the QB competition winner some stability up front even as the skill groups around him churn. Defensively, the profile still grades as above average, but role loss and coverage attrition are real concerns after significant turnover on the back end, and the front seven will need younger pieces to hold up against the pass rush South Florida built its identity on.

JP+ projects South Florida at 8.2 wins, a number that reflects an above-average team overall but one absorbing real structural change at quarterback and in the secondary. The gap between that projection and any rosier market expectation likely comes down to replacement confidence — medium, per the offseason evaluation — on both a first-year quarterback and a defense replacing coverage pieces that anchored last year's unit. Road trips to Army, UTSA, and East Carolina will test the new pieces early, while home dates against UAB, Kent State, and Delaware State offer a cushion to find answers. If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the secondary reloads on schedule, South Florida pushes toward the higher end of that range; if either takes longer than expected, 8.2 wins looks like a fair ceiling rather than a floor.