South Florida

The Bulls enter 2026 with a new head coach in Brian Hartline and a quarterback competition to replace departed starter Byrum Brown, who transferred to Auburn along with 178.3 points of production above average. South Florida's +1.9 JP+ rating ranks 52nd nationally, buoyed by a defense that grades 45th (+1.4) and an offense sitting 49th (+1.2) despite the quarterback uncertainty. The portal worked against them overall — 34 departures cost 323.1 PPA while 41 arrivals added just 30.9 — though they did secure receiver Armani Winfield from Colorado State (13.0 PPA) plus Arhmad Branch from Purdue and Cameron Seldon from Virginia Tech to help offset losses like receivers Keshaun Singleton and Jeremiah Koger to Auburn.

JP+ projects 7.0 wins for a Bulls team coming off a 9-3 season, reflecting the structural uncertainty around both the new quarterback and defensive coverage attrition that creates elevated variance in potential outcomes. The defense kept them competitive last year and needs to repeat that performance while the new signal-caller establishes himself in an offense that lost half its rushing production and just 17% of its target share. If Hartline's transition proves smooth and the QB competition produces a reliable starter, the Bulls could approach their 2025 win total again. If the quarterback situation falters or the defensive replacements struggle, a step back toward six wins becomes likely.