JP+ One-Sheet
South Florida
American | 2026
Projected Wins
8.2Team Thesis
South Florida Enters the Brian Hartline Era Amid Quarterback Transition. Brian Hartline takes over a program coming off a 9-3 season, and the defining question is what happens under center now that Byrum Brown has left for Auburn.
Model Profile
#58
JP+ Rank
#48
Offense
#45
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
8.2
JP+
8.1
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Soft landing
41% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 98%. Collapse risk 9% (6 or fewer wins). Biggest shift Wk2: 82% to 43%.
Bull Case
10-2If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the secondary reloads on schedule, South Florida pushes toward the higher end of that range;…
Bear Case
7-5If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the secondary reloads on schedule, South Florida pushes toward the higher end of that range;…
American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Navy | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Army | 7.6 | -- | 7.2 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| East Carolina | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| FAU | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |