South Alabama

South Alabama's 2026 outlook hinges entirely on quarterback Bishop Davenport carrying an offense that lost significant pieces around him. The Jaguars grade out at 116th nationally with a -8.9 rating, dragged down by concerning offensive depth after Jeremy Scott transferred to TCU and tight ends Trent Thomas (Tennessee) and Brec Long (North Texas) departed via the portal. With 30 total departures yielding 14.2 points per attempt lost compared to just 11 arrivals adding zero PPA, Davenport faces immense pressure to elevate a unit that ranks 99th offensively while the defense provides modest stability at 118th.

JP+ projects 6.1 wins for the Jaguars, who must navigate challenging road tests at Kentucky, Arkansas State, and Tulane while capitalizing on home games against Ohio, ULM, and Southeastern Louisiana. The gap between projection and reality depends almost entirely on whether Davenport can compensate for the depleted skill position room and uncertain offensive line continuity that defines this roster's structural fragility. If the returning quarterback elevates those around him, South Alabama could surprise in Sun Belt play and exceed that modest projection. If the supporting cast proves insufficient, another disappointing campaign awaits.