JP+ One-Sheet
South Alabama
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
5.7
Model Profile
#117
JP+ Rank
#107
Off Adj
#120
Def Adj
Overall
-10.7
Offense
-3.7
Defense
-5.2
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
5.7
JP+
5.5
SP+
Bowl Path54%
Fast Start69%
Collapse Risk8%
Path Shape
Early equity
69% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 54%. Collapse risk 8% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 92% to 26%.
Sun Belt Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Marshall | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Appalachian State | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Troy | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Old Dominion | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Georgia Southern | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| South Alabama | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Southern Miss | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 |