JP+ One-Sheet
South Alabama
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
5.8Team Thesis
South Alabama Leans on Bishop Davenport Again While the Trenches Get Rebuilt. Bishop Davenport is back under center, and that continuity is basically the whole offense right now.
Model Profile
#118
JP+ Rank
#109
Offense
#119
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
5.5
Market
5.8
JP+
5.2
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#114
Rated coverage72%
Candidate members65
Rated players47
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path57%
3-3 start73%
Collapse risk7%
73% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 57%. Collapse risk 7% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 92% to 26%.
Bull Case
7-5If the reworked line gels quickly and Davenport finds new targets to replace what Scott and the departed tight ends took with them, this group c…
Bear Case
4-8If not, another season hovering around .500 or worse is the more likely outcome.
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Georgia Southern | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| South Alabama | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Southern Miss | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 |