SMU

Kevin Jennings returns for his third season in the ACC with SMU's biggest weakness glaring under the lights: a pass defense that ranked second-worst nationally in 2025 and threatens to derail another College Football Playoff push. The Mustangs check in 28th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at +8.5 points, driven by a potent offense (+5.9, 21st) that masks serious defensive concerns (+2.8, 35th). New defensive coordinator Maurice Crum Jr. inherits a unit that allowed opposing quarterbacks to shred them through the air, while the offense welcomes East Carolina transfer Yannick Smith (41.6 PPA) to replace departed running back Chris Johnson Jr., who took his 20.4 PPA to Clemson.

JP+ projects 7.5 wins for SMU in a schedule that features brutal road tests at Notre Dame, Florida State, and Louisville balanced against home dates with Boston College, Missouri State, and UC Davis. The gap between projection and CFP hopes hinges entirely on whether Crum can stabilize a secondary that single-handedly sabotaged an otherwise capable team last season, despite adding 72.1 PPA through the transfer portal against 18.5 lost. If the pass defense reaches even mediocrity, this offense has the talent to push for double-digit wins and playoff contention. If not, another 8-4 ceiling awaits despite Jennings' steady hand under center.