SMU

Kevin Jennings enters Year 3 in the ACC with the weight of SMU's College Football Playoff aspirations on his shoulders, but the real question isn't whether the quarterback can deliver — it's whether new defensive coordinator Maurice Crum Jr. can solve the nation's second-worst pass defense that derailed an otherwise promising 8-4 campaign. The Mustangs rank 28th nationally in JP+ at +7.7 points, powered by a solid offense that grades 21st (+5.0) but dragged down by a defense that sits 36th (+2.4) and special teams units that rank a dismal 98th. SMU made calculated moves in the portal, adding East Carolina receiver Yannick Smith (41.6 PPA) and Florida State tight end Randy Pittman Jr. (24.4 PPA) to offset the loss of running back Chris Johnson Jr. to Clemson, though offensive continuity remains mixed with just 35% of targets returning.

JP+ projects 7.7 wins for the Mustangs, sitting comfortably under the market's 8.5-win expectation, with road tests at Notre Dame, Florida State, and Louisville looming as the primary obstacles to another strong season. The projection gap reflects legitimate concerns about defensive front reset and edge pressure attrition that could expose an already vulnerable secondary, even as Jennings provides stability at quarterback with 100% returning production at the position. If Crum can patch the pass defense holes and the portal additions gel quickly on offense, SMU has the talent to push for nine wins and another postseason run. If the defensive issues persist, however, the Mustangs could find themselves fighting just to reach bowl eligibility in a competitive ACC.