JP+ One-Sheet
SMU
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.8
Model Profile
#28
JP+ Rank
#18
Off Adj
#41
Def Adj
Overall
+8.9
Offense
+6.3
Defense
+2.2
Win Total Context
8.5
Market
7.8
JP+
8.0
SP+
Bowl Path95%
Fast Start39%
Collapse Risk15%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
39% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 95%. Collapse risk 15% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk12: 76% to 18%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Pitt | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |