JP+ One-Sheet
SMU
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
8.0Team Thesis
SMU's Pass Defense Has to Get Fixed, Not Just Improved. Kevin Jennings is back for a third year running SMU's ACC offense, and that continuity alone separates the Mustangs from most teams still figuring out their quarterback situation.
Model Profile
#29
JP+ Rank
#20
Offense
#39
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
8.0
JP+
8.3
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.5 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#31
Rated coverage81%
Candidate members70
Rated players57
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path96%
5-1 start42%
Collapse risk13%
42% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 96%. Collapse risk 13% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk12: 78% to 19%.
Bull Case
10-2If Crum's pass defense fix holds and the edge rotation stabilizes, SMU's offense-driven ceiling points back toward the CFP conversation.
Bear Case
7-5If the coverage issues linger, 8.0 wins look about right, and the ceiling flattens fast.
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| NC State | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |