Kevin Jennings is back for a third year running SMU's ACC offense, and that continuity alone separates the Mustangs from most teams still figuring out their quarterback situation. The offense projects as top-tier, and Jennings gets fresh weapons via the portal in Yannick Smith (41.6 PPA from East Carolina) and tight ends Randy Pittman Jr. (Florida State) and Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M), even after losing running back Chris Johnson Jr. to Clemson. But the story of this offseason is the defense, and specifically a pass defense that ranked among the very worst in the country a year ago. Maurice Crum Jr. takes over as defensive coordinator, promoted internally as Rhett Lashlee's staff stays intact at head coach, and he inherits a front seven dealing with real attrition — edge pressure and role loss are the two numbers that stand out most in the offseason churn. The defense overall grades as above average, but that phrase means little if the back end keeps bleeding explosive passing plays the way it did in 2025.

JP+ projects 7.8 wins, and the market's Under 8.5 carries 31% expected value, which suggests the number is priced a shade high relative to what the model sees. The gap comes down to schedule and uncertainty up front: road trips to Notre Dame, Florida State, and Louisville are unforgiving, while home dates with Boston College, Missouri State, and UC Davis should be comfortable. Special teams sits below average, a quiet tax on margins in close games. If Crum's pass defense fix holds and the edge rotation stabilizes, SMU's offense-driven ceiling points back toward the CFP conversation. If the coverage issues linger, 7.9 wins look about right, and the ceiling flattens fast.