San Jose State

San Jose State enters 2026 needing to replace quarterback Walker Eget, who transferred to Duke after contributing 129.7 PPA to the program. The Spartans' -8.6 JP+ rating ranks 115th nationally, dragged down primarily by a defense that grades out 127th at -6.7 points per game. The offense projects as merely below-average at -1.8, but that calculation assumes competent quarterback play from either the new signal-caller or Luke Weaver, who arrives from Hawaii with 15.9 PPA. San Jose State lost significant receiving production with Danny Scudero (48.4 PPA) heading to Colorado and Kyri Shoels (45.2 PPA) transferring to Utah, though replacements Jerry McClure and Dominique McKenzie bring veteran experience from San Diego State and BYU respectively.

JP+ projects 5.5 wins from 13 games, a modest expectation that reflects both the defensive struggles and uncertainty under center. The schedule provides opportunities against Wyoming, Northern Illinois, and Cal Poly at home, but road trips to USC and Air Force plus a home date with North Dakota State represent significant challenges for a team that lost 278.9 PPA through the portal while adding just 16.3 back. If the quarterback competition produces competent play and the defense shows improvement from its dismal 2025 showing, the Spartans could surprise and reach bowl eligibility. If not, another long season awaits in San Jose.