The defining story of San Jose State's offseason is what happened at quarterback and around it. Walker Eget, who produced 129.7 PPA last season, left for Duke, and the Spartans turned to the portal to replace him, landing Luke Weaver from Hawaii as the presumptive answer. Whoever wins that competition inherits an offense that already looks below average in the program's broad model profile, and now has to do it without top targets Danny Scudero (48.4 PPA, off to Colorado) and Kyri Shoels (45.2 PPA, off to Utah). Wide receiver help arrived in the form of Jerry McClure from San Diego State and Dominique McKenzie from BYU, but neither carries the proven PPA of the players who left. Defensively, the picture is murkier and less encouraging — the unit already grades as bottom-tier, and it's losing pieces up front and in coverage without clear replacements identified yet. Special teams round out the profile at bottom-tier as well, leaving few areas of the roster untouched by change.

JP+ projects San Jose State at 5.0 wins, a number shaped heavily by the structural uncertainty at quarterback and along both lines. With zero returning production at the position and just 2% of targets back at receiver, the offense is starting over even as the defense deals with its own attrition at edge and in coverage. The Spartans get help with a home slate against Wyoming, Northern Illinois, and Cal Poly, but road trips to USC, Air Force, and Hawaii offer little margin for error while the new pieces gel. If the quarterback competition produces a clear, capable starter early and the new receivers find a rhythm, San Jose State can play above its floor and push toward bowl contention. If the transition drags into October, a rebuilding defense won't have the support to keep games manageable, and 5.1 wins could represent the ceiling rather than the expectation.