San Jose State

The Spartans enter 2026 with significant uncertainty under center after losing quarterback Walker Eget to Duke via the transfer portal. San Jose State's JP+ rating of -11.1 points ranks 121st nationally, with the defense (-7.1, 128th) dragging down an offense that projects as nearly average (-1.9, 86th). The roster churn was substantial — 16 departures cost 278.9 PPA while 17 arrivals added just 16.3 PPA back. Luke Weaver transferred in from Hawaii to compete for the starting job, while the receiving corps lost both Danny Scudero (Colorado) and Kyri Shoels (Utah) before adding Jerry McClure from San Diego State and Dominique McKenzie from BYU.

JP+ projects 5.0 wins for the Spartans in a season defined by structural instability on both sides of the ball. The offense faces high continuity risk with zero quarterback return share and just 2% of target share returning, while the defense lost key contributors in coverage and pass rush roles. Road trips to USC and Air Force loom as the season's toughest tests, though home games against Wyoming, Northern Illinois, and Cal Poly offer opportunities to build momentum. If the new signal-caller and rebuilt receiving corps click early, the Spartans could surprise with bowl eligibility — but if the defensive departures prove costly, another long season awaits in San Jose.