JP+ One-Sheet
San Jose State
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
4.8Team Thesis
San Jose State Faces a Full Quarterback Reset Amid Roster Turnover. The defining story of San Jose State's offseason is what happened at quarterback and around it.
Model Profile
#122
JP+ Rank
#98
Offense
#123
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
4.8
JP+
4.4
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
41% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 29%. Collapse risk 7% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 94% to 29%.
Bull Case
6-7If the quarterback competition produces a clear, capable starter early and the new receivers find a rhythm, San Jose State can play above its fl…
Bear Case
3-10If the transition drags into October, a rebuilding defense won't have the support to keep games manageable, and 4.8 wins could represent the cei…
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| San Jose State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |