The story here is a flip. San Diego State's defense carried the program to a 9-3 finish, and now it's the unit facing the steepest replacement job, while the AztecFAST offense finally gets to run with continuity. The defensive side loses significant role production and coverage snaps, the kind of attrition that shows up in practice before it shows up on a stat sheet, and the roster's structural profile reflects that: defense projects as high-risk on continuity even as the broader qualitative read still favors it as the stronger unit, with special teams graded as an outright asset. Offensively, Jayden Denegal returns at quarterback, which matters given the churn around him — three contributing wideouts in Mikey Welsh, Jerry McClure and Myles Kitt-Denton are gone via the portal, but Justius Lowe arrives from Oregon and Colorado State transfer Javion Kinnard brings real juice out of the backfield. Up front, Indiana transfer OT Evan Lawrence should stabilize a line that needs to protect Denegal and hold shape behind a quarterback who's now thrown behind the same shoulder pads for two straight years. The offense still projects as the shakier half of the equation, which puts extra weight on a defense that has to replace more than it returns.

JP+ projects San Diego State at 6.9 wins, a number shaped as much by structural uncertainty as by talent. The road slate — at UCLA, at Boise State, at Toledo — offers little margin, while home dates against James Madison, Utah State and Portland State look like the likeliest building blocks toward that total. The gap between preseason expectation and outcome here will likely come down to how fast the secondary finds answers and whether Kinnard and Lowe give Denegal enough thrust to offset the receiver losses. If the defense's replacements settle in quickly and Lawrence anchors the line, this team pushes toward the higher end of that number. If the coverage attrition lingers into October, 6.9 could prove generous.