San Diego State

The great defense that powered San Diego State to a 9-3 season lost too many stars, creating coverage instability that drops the unit from elite to merely good. The Aztecs' defensive rating falls to 31st nationally at +3.2 points per game — still solid but a significant step back from the dominant unit that carried last year's success. Meanwhile, the offense returns key pieces to make the AztecFAST attack work, led by returning starter Jayden Denegal and new offensive tackle Evan Lawrence, an Indiana transfer who should stabilize the line. The portal math favors San Diego State despite losing receiver Mikey Welsh (5.0 PPA), as arrivals like Colorado State running back Javion Kinnard (7.5 PPA) and Oregon receiver Justius Lowe (4.7 PPA) add more talent than departed.

JP+ projects 6.9 wins for the Aztecs in their Pac-12 campaign, with the offensive improvement (+3.2 ranking at 102nd) offsetting defensive regression in a roster marked by moderate offensive continuity risk and high defensive uncertainty. Road tests at UCLA, Boise State, and Toledo will determine whether this team can exceed expectations, while home games against Utah State, Washington State, and Portland State offer win opportunities. If the AztecFAST system clicks with better offensive line protection and Kinnard provides explosive plays, eight wins remains achievable. If the defensive secondary struggles without its departed stars and the offense stalls in tough road environments, this becomes a middling bowl team fighting for six wins.