JP+ One-Sheet
San Diego State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
7.1Team Thesis
San Diego State's Defense Loses Depth Just as the Offense Gets Its Pieces Back. The story here is a flip.
Model Profile
#69
JP+ Rank
#93
Offense
#33
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
7.1
JP+
7.4
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#84
Rated coverage74%
Candidate members86
Rated players64
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path88%
5-1 start30%
Collapse risk12%
30% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 88%. Collapse risk 12% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 25%.
Bull Case
9-2If the defense's replacements settle in quickly and Lawrence anchors the line, this team pushes toward the higher end of that number.
Bear Case
6-5If the coverage attrition lingers into October, 6.9 could prove generous.
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |