JP+ One-Sheet
San Diego State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.9
Model Profile
#70
JP+ Rank
#97
Off Adj
#33
Def Adj
Overall
+0.5
Offense
-2.6
Defense
+3.3
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
6.9
JP+
6.5
SP+
Bowl Path85%
Fast Start64%
Collapse Risk5%
Path Shape
Early equity
64% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 85%. Collapse risk 5% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 23%.
Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Boise State | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Fresno State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Texas State | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Colorado State | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 |