San Diego State

The great defense that carried San Diego State to a 9-3 record last season lost too many stars, creating the offseason's central challenge for a program that has thrived on defensive excellence. The Aztecs grade out at +1.2 points per game in JP+ ratings (#55 nationally), but the components tell a stark story: the defense still ranks 34th nationally at +2.8 points per game despite the departures, while the offense sits at 84th nationally with a -1.8 rating. Quarterback Jayden Denegal returns as the starter to anchor the AztecFAST attack, which should benefit from offensive tackle Evan Lawrence transferring in from Indiana and the arrival of Colorado State running back Javion Kinnard (7.5 PPA). The portal brought 26 new faces to replace 26 departures, with Oregon receiver Justius Lowe (4.7 PPA) helping offset the loss of Mikey Welsh (5.0 PPA) at the position.

JP+ projects 6.7 wins for San Diego State in 2026, suggesting the market may be slightly optimistic about a team navigating significant defensive turnover in its first Pac-12 season. Road games at UCLA, Boise State, and Toledo represent the toughest tests, while home contests against Washington State, Utah State, and Portland State offer the best opportunities for comfortable victories. If the returning offensive players can make the AztecFAST system more explosive with Lawrence anchoring the line and Kinnard providing backfield punch, this team could exceed modest expectations. If not, the defensive losses may prove too much to overcome in a challenging new conference environment.