Sam Houston's offseason theme is turnover, plain and simple. Hunter Watson, who produced 11.2 PPA a year ago, is gone via the portal, and the new signal-caller will be whoever wins a competition that starts from zero returning QB snaps. The bigger churn shows up everywhere else, too — 15 departures and 20 arrivals across the roster, with tight end Rayfield Lotten (4.1 PPA) heading to New Mexico State and wideout Michael Phoenix II also out the door. The offense, already bottom-tier in the qualitative profile, now has to replace target share almost from scratch, with just 2% of targets returning and only 73% offensive line continuity to lean on. The incoming class offers some pieces — tight end Max Whisner (3.2 PPA) arrives from Akron, and EDGE Zion Taylor (2.7 PPA) joins from Houston — but the defense, itself already thin by qualitative measure, is being asked for stability while the offense figures out its identity. Special teams, too, projects as a bottom-tier unit, leaving little margin anywhere on the roster.

JP+ projects 2.9 wins, a number that lines up with a team replacing its quarterback and its top pass-catching production simultaneously. The gap between that number and any market optimism comes down to the offensive uncertainty — moderate continuity risk, medium replacement confidence, and a schedule that opens with road trips to Texas Tech, Liberty, and Jacksonville State before easier looks at New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee, and Nicholls at home. If the new quarterback settles in quickly and Whisner or another portal addition stabilizes the passing game, Sam Houston can be competitive in those home games and push toward the higher end of its range. If not, the defense will again be left to carry too much, and 2025's 2-10 finish could repeat itself.