JP+ One-Sheet
Sam Houston
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
3.1Team Thesis
Sam Houston Turns Over Its Backfield and Its Roster After a 2-10 Season. Sam Houston's offseason theme is turnover, plain and simple.
Model Profile
#136
JP+ Rank
#133
Offense
#135
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
3.5
Market
3.1
JP+
3.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#129
Rated coverage50%
Candidate members62
Rated players31
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path3%
2-4 start34%
Collapse risk15%
34% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 3%. Collapse risk 15% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 66% to 1%.
Bull Case
5-7If the new quarterback settles in quickly and Whisner or another portal addition stabilizes the passing game, Sam Houston can be competitive in…
Bear Case
2-10If not, the defense will again be left to carry too much, and 2025's 2-10 finish could repeat itself.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| New Mexico State | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Sam Houston | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 |