The defining story here is quarterback continuity, or the lack of it. A quarterback left in the portal, and Carson Conklin arrives from Fresno State to compete for the job, while Matthew Coleman comes over from San Jose State as the clear top offensive addition after posting 9.0 PPA there. That's the headline piece of a portal class that saw 22 departures and 25 arrivals, netting positive PPA overall but doing little to erase the loss of Cardell Williams, Rodney Hammond Jr., Ernest Campbell, and Damian Henderson II — a group that leaves target share and offensive line continuity in flux even with 73% of the line back. The broader profile fits: an offense that graded as bottom-tier a year ago now has to replace its passing identity with just 4% returning target share, while a defense already sitting in bottom-tier territory has to answer edge and coverage attrition on top of everything else. Special teams, at least, project as a stabilizing above-average unit in a season that otherwise looks unsettled.

JP+ projects 3.6 wins, a number shaped as much by structural uncertainty as by talent evaluation. The schedule offers two realistic paths to bowl-eligibility contention in Kent State, UMass, and Mississippi Valley State at home, while road trips to Fresno State and Hawaii, plus a home date with North Dakota State, sit clearly on the tougher end. The gap between what the roster showed in a 0-1 start and what the win total implies comes down to how quickly Conklin or a competing option settles the quarterback race, and whether Coleman can anchor a receiving corps that lost most of its proven target share. If the quarterback battle resolves cleanly and the front seven holds up despite edge losses, this group can find its way to four or five wins. If the coverage attrition lingers and the passing game never settles, the floor looks like a difficult season built on defense and special teams alone.