JP+ One-Sheet
Sacramento State
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.6
Model Profile
#137
JP+ Rank
#137
Off Adj
#137
Def Adj
Overall
-21.8
Offense
-11.3
Defense
-11.3
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
3.6
JP+
3.9
SP+
Bowl Path5%
Fast Start21%
Collapse Risk60%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
21% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 5%. Collapse risk 60% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 65% to 7%.
Mid-American Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.7 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Ohio | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Buffalo | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Bowling Green | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Kent State | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| UMass | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |