JP+ One-Sheet
Sacramento State
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.6Team Thesis
Sacramento State's Offense Rebuilds Around a New Quarterback and a Thin Receiver Room. The defining story here is quarterback continuity, or the lack of it.
Model Profile
#137
JP+ Rank
#137
Offense
#137
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
4.5
Market
3.6
JP+
4.3
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.9 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#104
Rated coverage65%
Candidate members78
Rated players51
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path5%
3-3 start22%
Collapse risk31%
22% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 5%. Collapse risk 31% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 63% to 6%.
Bull Case
5-7If the quarterback battle resolves cleanly and the front seven holds up despite edge losses, this group can find its way to four or five wins.
Bear Case
2-10If the coverage attrition lingers and the passing game never settles, the floor looks like a difficult season built on defense and special teams…
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UMass | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |