Everything about Rutgers this offseason funnels back to one question: can the defense stop being the reason games get away from them? New defensive coordinator Travis Johansen inherits a unit that graded as bottom-tier in the qualitative profile, and the headline addition is Maryland transfer cornerback Kevyn Humes, whose presence in the secondary is the entire storyline of spring ball. Coverage attrition and edge/front-seven replacement questions dominate the defensive ledger, and until those issues get fixed, nothing else on the roster matters much. The offense, by contrast, looks like a genuine strength — top-tier by the qualitative model — even after Athan Kaliakmanis departed and left the starting job to the winner of an open competition, with Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan (59.6 PPA) the headline arrival. The returning offensive coordinator will lean on that transfer haul, which also includes running back Clay Thevenin from Louisiana Tech and tight end Kameron Anthony from Ball State, even as Rutgers replaces receiver Ian Strong, who left for Cal after a 41.1-PPA season. Special teams project as a mild drag on top of all that, which only raises the stakes on the defense getting its footing early.

JP+ projects 5.6 wins after a 5-7 finish, a number shaped heavily by the uncertainty embedded in that defensive turnover — role loss, edge attrition, and coverage questions all show up as moderate risk factors, and replacement confidence sits at only medium. The schedule offers a clear proving ground: Indiana and USC come to Piscataway, Penn State awaits on the road, while Michigan State, Howard, and UMass represent the most manageable outs. If Humes stabilizes the secondary and the Lonergan-led offense hits its top-tier ceiling early, this group can outkick 5.6 comfortably. If the coverage issues linger into October, the offense will be left trying to outscore everybody alone, and the floor could look a lot like last year.