JP+ One-Sheet

Rutgers

Big Ten | 2026

Projected Wins

5.5

Team Thesis

Rutgers' Season Comes Down to One Cornerback and a Defense in Need of Answers. Everything about Rutgers this offseason funnels back to one question: can the defense stop being the reason games get away from them?

Model Profile

#68

JP+ Rank

#26

Offense

#114

Defense

+1.5

Overall

+4.9

Offense

-4.0

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

5.5

Market

5.5

JP+

5.4

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.0 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#56

Rated coverage75%

Candidate members72

Rated players54

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path46%

3-3 start79%

Collapse risk9%

79% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 46%. Collapse risk 9% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 96% to 13%.

Bull Case

7-5

If Humes stabilizes the secondary and the Lonergan-led offense hits its top-tier ceiling early, this group can outkick 5.6 comfortably.

Bear Case

4-8

If the coverage issues linger into October, the offense will be left trying to outscore everybody alone, and the floor could look a lot like las…

Big Ten Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Indiana	9.8	10.5	10.0
Oregon	9.7	10.5	10.2
Ohio State	9.5	9.5	10.2
Penn State	8.8	9.5	9.0
Iowa	7.8	7.5	8.0
Northwestern	5.7	5.5	5.3
Rutgers	5.5	5.5	5.4
Purdue	4.5	3.5	3.4