Rutgers

Nothing will get better until the defense improves, and that transformation starts with new defensive coordinator Travis Johansen replacing Robb Smith. The Scarlet Knights enter 2026 with a glaring imbalance: their offense grades out as the 24th-best unit nationally (+4.3), while the defense ranks 116th at -4.4 points per game. Rutgers lost wide receiver Ian Strong (41.1 PPA) to Cal and running back CJ Campbell Jr. to Duke, but added Boston College quarterback Dylan Lonergan (59.6 PPA) and Louisiana Tech running back Clay Thevenin (21.5 PPA) through the portal. The key defensive addition is cornerback Kevyn Humes from Maryland, whose presence in the secondary could stabilize a coverage unit that lost significant continuity.

JP+ projects 5.7 wins for Rutgers in 2026, reflecting moderate continuity risks on both sides of the ball as the program navigates quarterback uncertainty and defensive personnel turnover. The offense faces concentration risk after losing multiple contributors, while the defense must replace departed coverage players and edge rushers under Johansen's new system. Home games against Indiana and USC, plus a road trip to Penn State, represent the season's toughest tests, though winnable contests against Michigan State, Howard, and UMass provide cushion. If Johansen can quickly install his system and Humes anchors improved coverage, Rutgers could push toward bowl eligibility. If the defensive struggles persist, another sub-.500 season awaits.