Rutgers

Nothing will get better for Rutgers until the defense improves, and that improvement hinges entirely on new defensive coordinator Travis Johansen's system meshing with cornerback Kevyn Humes, the Maryland transfer expected to anchor the secondary. The Scarlet Knights possess the Big Ten's 32nd-ranked defense at +3.4 points per game, a stark contrast to their struggling offense that ranks 97th nationally at -2.7. They lost receiver Ian Strong (41.1 PPA) to Cal but added Boston College quarterback Dylan Lonergan (59.6 PPA) and Louisiana Tech running back Clay Thevenin (21.5 PPA) through the portal, gaining 92.2 PPA overall while losing just 46.6.

JP+ projects 5.8 wins for a team coming off a 5-7 season, with home games against Indiana, USC, and Penn State representing the toughest tests on the schedule. The defense must carry an offense that still lacks proven playmakers beyond Lonergan, whose quarterback competition battle will determine how much the unit can improve from its dismal ranking. If Johansen's scheme maximizes Humes and the defensive talent, eight wins becomes possible in a Big Ten that rewards strong defense. If the offense remains stagnant and the defensive transition stumbles, another losing season awaits.