Rice

Rice enters 2026 navigating a quarterback transition after losing Chase Jenkins to Kansas via the transfer portal, though the Owls did add Jacurri Brown from UCF to help fill the void. The numbers paint a stark picture of the challenges ahead: JP+ rates Rice 123rd nationally at -9.8 points, dragged down primarily by an offense that ranks 131st at -7.4 points while the defense sits more respectably at 103rd. The portal cycle saw 22 departures costing 29.0 PPA compared to 20 arrivals adding just 15.1 PPA, with running back Daelen Alexander also departing for Coastal Carolina alongside receiver Braylen Walker.

JP+ projects 4.9 wins for the Owls in the American Athletic Conference, a modest improvement over last year's 5-7 record that suggests incremental progress rather than a breakthrough season. The offense desperately needs the new signal-caller to emerge from what figures to be a competitive battle, while a defense that performed reasonably well relative to the program's recent standards must continue carrying the load. If Brown can quickly adapt and the offensive line provides adequate protection, Rice could surprise and push toward bowl eligibility. If the quarterback situation remains unsettled, another sub-.500 campaign looms with brutal road tests at Notre Dame and Fresno State highlighting an unforgiving schedule.