JP+ One-Sheet
Rice
American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.9
Model Profile
#115
JP+ Rank
#127
Off Adj
#98
Def Adj
Overall
-10.4
Offense
-7.6
Defense
-2.4
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
3.9
JP+
3.6
SP+
Bowl Path11%
Fast Start70%
Collapse Risk4%
Path Shape
Early equity
70% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 11%. Collapse risk 4% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 95% to 2%.
American Athletic Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Navy | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| Army | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| North Texas | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Temple | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| UAB | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Rice | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Charlotte | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 |