JP+ One-Sheet
Rice
American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.8Team Thesis
Rice Rebuilds the Backfield and Secondary at the Same Time. Rice enters the season needing a new quarterback, a new lead runner, and a more stable secondary all at once.
Model Profile
#117
JP+ Rank
#128
Offense
#97
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
3.8
JP+
3.6
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#105
Rated coverage62%
Candidate members82
Rated players51
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path10%
2-4 start68%
Collapse risk5%
68% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 10%. Collapse risk 5% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 95% to 2%.
Bull Case
5-7If the new signal-caller wins the job cleanly in camp and the defense's coverage replacements hold up, Rice can push past 4.1 and steal a couple…
Bear Case
2-10If not, another five-or-six-win offensive struggle is the likely outcome.
American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Navy | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Army | 7.6 | -- | 7.2 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| East Carolina | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UAB | 4.6 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Rice | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Charlotte | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 |