Rice enters the season needing a new quarterback, a new lead runner, and a more stable secondary all at once. Chase Jenkins is gone to Kansas after leading the offense, and Daelen Alexander followed him out the door to Coastal Carolina, taking a combined chunk of the offense's proven production with them. The portal answer at quarterback is Jacurri Brown, who arrives from UCF as the headline addition in a transfer class that saw 22 departures outweigh 20 arrivals in net production. Davis Lane Jr. joins from Virginia to help soften the receiver losses after Braylen Walker departed, but with only 82 percent offensive line continuity and effectively no returning target share, whoever wins the quarterback competition will be throwing to a retooled group. JP+ pegs this as a bottom-tier offense paired with a defense that grades below average, the same defense that has to replace coverage pieces amid what the underlying continuity data flags as moderate attrition in the back end. Special teams stand out as the one clearly above-average phase, a small edge on a roster otherwise searching for continuity.

JP+ projects 3.9 wins, a modest number that reflects both the offensive turnover and a schedule that opens with real teeth. Notre Dame, East Carolina, and Fresno State on the road represent the toughest stretch, while home dates with Tulane, Western Michigan, and Houston Christian offer the clearest paths to victories. The gap between that projection and any rosier outside expectation comes down to how fast Jacurri Brown or Gael Ochoa can settle the quarterback competition and how the rebuilt secondary handles receivers it hasn't seen. If the new signal-caller wins the job cleanly in camp and the defense's coverage replacements hold up, Rice can push past 4.1 and steal a couple of the winnable home games. If not, another five-or-six-win offensive struggle is the likely outcome.