Purdue is coming off a 2-10 season, and the offseason mission was simple: fix a running game that couldn't move the ball and surround Ryan Browne with enough weapons to make a real offensive jump. Browne returns as the starter, which matters given how much turned over around him — Nitro Tuggle (24.2 PPA) left for South Carolina, Arhmad Branch (9.9 PPA) departed for South Florida, and Rico Walker (8.3 PPA) transferred to Cal. Purdue answered with volume in the portal, bringing in Asaad Waseem (41.4 PPA) from FAU, Xavier Townsend (14.4 PPA) from Iowa State, and tight end Kylan Fox from UCF, while also adding EDGE Elo Modozie from Georgia to bolster a defense that projects as roughly average across the board. The overall picture is one of a team built around the middle of the conference in most phases, with special teams standing out as a legitimate strength. Offensive continuity is low, targets return at just 35%, but the offensive line brings back 67% and Browne's return gives the staff a stable base to build the skill groups around.

JP+ pegs Purdue for 4.4 wins, modest compared to a market that's priced the win total over/under at 3.5 with the over carrying 43% implied value. The toughest stretch runs through Indiana and Penn State on the road with Notre Dame visiting West Lafayette, while Wisconsin, Wake Forest, and Indiana State at home represent the clearest paths to bowl-eligibility math. The gap between the model and the market comes down to whether the portal additions on offense translate quickly enough to lift a unit that finished 2025 near the bottom of the league, with the defense and special teams doing enough to keep games competitive in the meantime. If Waseem and Townsend give Browne functional perimeter targets and Modozie generates consistent pressure off the edge, Purdue can push toward the higher end of that projection and put real distance between itself and the bottom of the Big Ten. If the receiving corps takes time to gel and the run game still lags, another difficult season is the more likely outcome.