Purdue

The Boilermakers attacked the transfer portal with desperation after a 2-10 collapse, losing 24 players but adding 29 newcomers who collectively produced 71.5 PPA at their previous stops. That's a net gain of nearly 30 points of production, headlined by FAU receiver Asaad Waseem's 41.4 PPA — more than replacing departed wideouts Nitro Tuggle and Arhmad Branch. Ryan Browne returns at quarterback to orchestrate what should be a significantly upgraded offense, while Georgia transfer Elo Modozie arrives to bolster an edge rush that must improve on a defense grading out 80th nationally at -1.3 points per game.

JP+ projects 4.9 wins for a program desperate to climb out of the Big Ten cellar, with the over 3.5 carrying 63% expected value despite brutal road trips to Indiana and Iowa bookending a home date with Notre Dame. The gap between projection and market reflects optimism that Waseem and fellow Iowa State transfer Xavier Townsend can immediately elevate an offense that graded out neutral at +0.0 last season. If the portal additions gel quickly and Browne distributes effectively to his new weapons, Purdue could push toward six wins and respectability. If not, another season in the conference basement awaits.