Penn State

Matt Campbell's arrival in Happy Valley comes with a remarkable commitment to his proven formula: roughly 20 Iowa State transfers followed him east, headlined by quarterback Rocco Becht (97.0 PPA) who immediately enters a wide-open competition after Drew Allar's departure. The Nittany Lions jumped from a disappointing 6-6 season to a respectable +10.4 JP+ rating (#22 nationally), powered by a balanced attack that grades out at +4.5 on offense (#23) and +4.0 on defense (#26). Campbell's physical, no-nonsense approach should find fertile ground with Penn State's talented base roster, though significant continuity questions loom across both lines after losing quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer to Virginia Tech and facing defensive front attrition.

JP+ projects 8.4 wins for the Nittany Lions in their new coach's debut, a number that reflects both the roster talent Campbell inherited and the structural uncertainty surrounding key position groups. The projection sits comfortably above what many expect from a first-year coach managing significant roster turnover, particularly with road trips to Washington and Michigan looming as season-defining tests. If Becht or another signal-caller can quickly establish rhythm in Campbell's system while the defensive front develops adequate pass rush, Penn State could surprise in the expanded Big Ten. If the continuity issues at quarterback and along both lines prove more disruptive than anticipated, Campbell's physical identity might take longer to materialize than Happy Valley hopes.