Penn State

Matt Campbell's arrival in Happy Valley represents more than just a coaching change — it's a wholesale cultural shift built around roughly 20 Iowa State transfers who'll help establish the physical, gritty identity that made the Cyclones competitive in the Big 12. The Nittany Lions enter 2026 ranked 21st nationally in JP+'s preseason ratings at +11.3 points, with all three phases contributing: offense checks in 23rd (+5.5), defense 25th (+4.8), and special teams an elite 2nd (+1.0). Campbell's biggest prize from the portal is quarterback Rocco Becht, who brings 97.0 PPA from Iowa State to lead an offense that also added receivers Chase Sowell (29.2 PPA) and Brett Eskildsen (24.7 PPA) from Ames.

JP+ projects 7.9 wins for a program coming off a disappointing 6-6 campaign, with the optimism stemming largely from Campbell's proven ability to maximize talent and the infusion of experienced transfers who understand his system. The schedule presents clear challenges with road trips to Michigan and Washington plus a home date with USC, but winnable games against Wisconsin, Marshall, and Buffalo at home provide a foundation for bowl eligibility. If Becht can replicate his Iowa State production and Campbell's culture takes hold quickly, this could be a 9-win team that exceeds expectations. If the transition proves bumpy and the new pieces don't mesh immediately, Penn State fans might endure another mediocre season while the foundation gets built.