JP+ One-Sheet
Penn State
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
8.8Team Thesis
Matt Campbell Brings Iowa State Toughness to a Talented Penn State Roster. Matt Campbell takes over in Happy Valley after James Franklin's exit, and he didn't come alone.
Model Profile
#15
JP+ Rank
#21
Offense
#22
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
9.5
Market
8.8
JP+
9.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.7 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#34
Rated coverage78%
Candidate members74
Rated players58
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path99%
5-1 start69%
Collapse risk13%
69% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 99%. Collapse risk 13% (7 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk10: 87% to 46%.
Bull Case
10-2If Becht or his competition wins the job cleanly and the retooled front seven holds up early, this team can push toward the top of its projectio…
Bear Case
7-5If the trenches lag on either side, six or seven wins is a real possibility in a demanding debut season.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Michigan | 7.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 |