JP+ One-Sheet
Penn State
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
8.9
Model Profile
#21
JP+ Rank
#21
Off Adj
#24
Def Adj
Overall
+12.7
Offense
+5.6
Defense
+4.5
Win Total Context
8.5
Market
8.9
JP+
9.1
SP+
Bowl Path99%
Fast Start72%
Collapse Risk3%
Path Shape
Early equity
72% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 99%. Collapse risk 3% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk10: 88% to 49%.
Big Ten Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Oregon | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.6 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Iowa | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| UCLA | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Michigan | 7.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Nebraska | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Illinois | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Maryland | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 |