Matt Campbell takes over in Happy Valley after James Franklin's exit, and he didn't come alone. Roughly 20 Iowa State pieces followed him east, headlined by quarterback Rocco Becht, who arrives with 97.0 PPA to lead a QB competition after Drew Allar's departure left the position open. Wideouts Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen came from Ames too, giving the new signal-caller familiar targets on a roster JP+ still views as top-tier overall, with a top-tier offense and defense and elite special teams. The trench work is the real project: the offensive line sits at 50% returning production, and the defensive front took real attrition losses up front, with role loss and edge metrics both flagging real churn. Penn State went 6-6 a year ago, and Campbell's task is building a physical, gritty identity fast, even as Ethan Grunkemeyer, Kaytron Allen, Drew Allar and Trebor Pena all left significant production behind.

JP+ projects 8.9 wins, a number that reflects the underlying talent more than the uncertainty around it. The schedule offers a path — Purdue, Marshall and Buffalo at home should be manageable — but road trips to Washington and Michigan, plus a home date with USC, will test whatever identity Campbell builds in year one. The gap between that projection and any market skepticism traces back to the offensive line reset, the concentration risk around a new starting quarterback, and a defensive front replacing key edge pressure with medium confidence. If Becht or his competition wins the job cleanly and the retooled front seven holds up early, this team can push toward the top of its projection. If the trenches lag on either side, six or seven wins is a real possibility in a demanding debut season.