Old Dominion

The Monarchs enter 2026 navigating life after quarterback Colton Joseph, who transferred to Wisconsin after throwing for 155.3 PPA last season. The signal-caller competition now centers around Washington State transfer Jaxon Potter, who brings 24.1 PPA to Norfolk alongside tight end Leon Haughton Jr. from Maryland. Old Dominion's defense grades out as the 48th-best nationally at +1.1 points per game, a strength that helped fuel last year's 9-3 record, while the offense sits at 76th nationally. The transfer portal hit hard with 22 departures including receiver Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (46.4 PPA) to Maryland and Tre' Brown III (39.8 PPA) to LSU, creating significant target-share uncertainty.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins for the Monarchs in a Sun Belt that features challenging road trips to Virginia Tech, Appalachian State, and Louisiana Tech. The -2.6 overall rating reflects an offense still finding its identity under a new quarterback paired with a defense that should keep games competitive. Special teams rank 135th nationally, creating additional pressure on both sides of the ball to maximize possessions. If Potter quickly establishes chemistry with the remaining receivers and the defense maintains its form, Old Dominion could push for eight wins. If the quarterback transition stalls and target-share losses compound, six wins becomes the realistic ceiling.