Colton Joseph is gone, off to Wisconsin after producing 155.3 PPA and steering Old Dominion to nine wins, and that departure is the defining fact of this offseason. The new signal-caller inherits an offense that projects as below average, with target competition thinned out after Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding left for Maryland and Tre' Brown III departed for LSU, taking a combined 86-plus PPA of production with them. Washington State transfer Jaxon Potter arrives as the presumptive answer, backed by 24.1 PPA of prior production, but the offensive line returns at a healthy 77 percent continuity even as skill-position turnover leaves target share almost entirely unsettled. The defense, meanwhile, held steady through the portal cycle and profiles as roughly average, giving this team a stabilizing foundation while the passing game sorts itself out. Special teams remain a clear weakness, the kind of unit that can quietly cost close games against Sun Belt peers.

JP+ projects 6.4 wins, a notable step down from last year's nine, and the market's Under 7.5 (33% EV) suggests bettors see the same regression the model does. The gap between record and projection traces directly to the offensive rebuild — a fragile replacement ecosystem with low confidence in how quickly the new quarterback and receiving corps mesh, particularly with road trips to Virginia Tech, UConn, and Louisiana Tech testing that unit early. Home dates against Southern Miss and Norfolk State, plus a trip to Georgia State, offer a cushion. If Potter wins the job cleanly and the defense carries the same weight it did in 2025, Old Dominion can flirt with bowl eligibility again. If the passing game stays unsettled into conference play, six wins is a realistic ceiling.