JP+ One-Sheet
Old Dominion
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
6.1Team Thesis
Old Dominion Turns the Page at Quarterback After a 9-Win Season. Colton Joseph is gone, off to Wisconsin after producing 155.3 PPA and steering Old Dominion to nine wins, and that departure is the defining fact of this offseason.
Model Profile
#104
JP+ Rank
#99
Offense
#67
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
6.1
JP+
7.2
SP+
JP+ GAP: -1.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#125
Rated coverage57%
Candidate members68
Rated players39
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path64%
4-2 start32%
Collapse risk36%
32% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 64%. Collapse risk 36% (5 or fewer wins). Biggest shift Wk2: 98% to 12%.
Bull Case
8-4If Potter wins the job cleanly and the defense carries the same weight it did in 2025, Old Dominion can flirt with bowl eligibility again.
Bear Case
5-7If the passing game stays unsettled into conference play, six wins is a realistic ceiling.
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Troy | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Old Dominion | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.2 |