Oklahoma State went 1-11 a year ago, and the fix started with the coaching search: Eric Morris arrives from North Texas and brought a chunk of his old roster with him. Drew Mestemaker, who produced 161.7 PPA for the Mean Green, headlines a transfer class that also includes running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young, both plugging directly into an offense that projects as a genuine team strength. That unit will lean on a new signal-caller taking over for departed Zane Flores, with offensive continuity rated high-risk given zero returning starter share at quarterback, but the incoming talent and Morris's track record give it real ceiling. The defense is a different story. It grades out as roughly average with moderate continuity risk tied to coverage attrition, and the roster still shed pieces like receivers Shamar Rigby and Gavin Freeman and back Rodney Fields Jr. to the portal. Special teams project as ordinary, which means this team's identity in 2026 runs almost entirely through what Morris and Mestemaker can build offensively while the defensive staff tries to stabilize a group that didn't hold up in 2025.

JP+ pegs Oklahoma State at 6.1 projected wins, a notable step up from last season's one-win finish, with the toughest tests coming against Texas Tech and Oregon at home and a road trip to Arizona State, balanced by more favorable spots against UCF, Tulsa, and Murray State. The gap between that projection and public perception likely comes down to trust: the offensive talent influx is real and easy to see on paper, but the quarterback competition and defensive coverage questions carry the kind of uncertainty that keeps this in projection territory rather than certainty. If Mestemaker or his eventual competition winner hits the ground running and the defense finds enough bodies to avoid last year's collapses, this group beats its number comfortably. If the secondary issues linger and the new quarterback needs time to adjust, 6.1 wins might be the realistic ceiling rather than the floor.