JP+ One-Sheet

Oklahoma State

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

6.0

Team Thesis

Eric Morris Brings North Texas' Offense to Stillwater — Now He Needs a Defense. Oklahoma State went 1-11 a year ago, and the fix started with the coaching search: Eric Morris arrives from North Texas and brought a chunk of his old roster with him.

Model Profile

#40

JP+ Rank

#11

Offense

#57

Defense

+6.1

Overall

+8.2

Offense

+0.6

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

6.5

Market

6.0

JP+

6.7

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.5 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#60

Rated coverage75%

Candidate members81

Rated players61

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path63%

4-2 start45%

Collapse risk17%

45% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 63%. Collapse risk 17% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 66% to 15%.

Bull Case

8-4

If Mestemaker or his eventual competition winner hits the ground running and the defense finds enough bodies to avoid last year's collapses, thi…

Bear Case

5-7

If the secondary issues linger and the new quarterback needs time to adjust, 6.0 wins might be the realistic ceiling rather than the floor.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
Arizona State	6.1	6.5	5.8
Oklahoma State	6.0	6.5	6.7
Iowa State	5.9	4.5	5.1