Ohio State

The pressure couldn't be more intense in Columbus after losing the Big Ten title to Indiana last season — a stunning development that has the Buckeyes loading up for a championship run in 2026. Ohio State enters as the nation's top-rated team with a +25.6 JP+ rating, driven by elite defense (+14.8, 3rd nationally) and solid offense (+10.5, 8th). The roster turnover was significant with 42 departures costing 127.9 PPA, but 17 arrivals added 91.0 PPA back, headlined by UTSA transfer Devin McCuin (35.2 PPA) joining a receiving corps that lost Carnell Tate to the NFL Draft. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns as the starter alongside superstar receiver Jeremiah Smith, while new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith takes over play-calling duties after Brian Hartline's departure. Defensively, the Buckeyes imported an NFL Combine's worth of transfer talent, led by Alabama defensive tackle James Smith, to complement what was already a top-3 unit under returning defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.

JP+ projects 9.4 wins for Ohio State, which could create a gap with inflated market expectations given the preseason hype and transfer portal additions. The schedule presents genuine tests with road trips to Indiana, Texas, and USC representing the toughest challenges, while home games against Maryland, Kent State, and Ball State offer easier victories. If Sayin develops into the elite quarterback his recruiting ranking suggested and the defensive transfers mesh immediately, this team has legitimate playoff upside. If the offensive coordinator transition stumbles or the defensive chemistry takes time to develop, another Big Ten disappointment becomes possible despite the talent influx.