Losing the Big Ten to Indiana changed the calculus in Columbus, and the offseason response was to go get an NFL Combine's worth of defensive help while keeping the offensive machine intact. Julian Sayin returns at quarterback with Jeremiah Smith still outside, and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith inherits a unit that lost Carnell Tate and Max Klare to the draft but replaced targets with Devin McCuin from UTSA and Kyle Parker from LSU. The bigger swing came on defense, where Matt Patricia returns to coordinate a unit rebuilt through the portal, headlined by James Smith arriving from Alabama to fortify the interior. The qualitative profile here is about as good as it gets — elite offense, elite defense, top-tier special teams — but the defensive side carries moderate replacement risk given the level of roster turnover, with real role loss to account for even as the talent infusion raises the ceiling.

JP+ pegs Ohio State at 9.6 projected wins, a number that reflects a schedule with real teeth — road trips to Indiana and Texas, plus a home date with Oregon — against a team built to be favored in almost every one of those games. The gap between that projection and the pressure to run the table stems from the offense's own continuity questions, with just 47% of targets returning and an offensive line that brings back 64% of its snaps, alongside a defense still knitting together new pieces on the fly. If the transfer defensive front gels quickly and the passing game rediscovers its rhythm without Tate, this group has the pieces to win the conference outright. If integration lags behind talent, a one-loss ceiling could still mean watching someone else hoist the trophy again.