JP+ One-Sheet
Ohio State
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
9.5Team Thesis
Ohio State Rebuilds the Defense to Reclaim the Big Ten. Losing the Big Ten to Indiana changed the calculus in Columbus, and the offseason response was to go get an NFL Combine's worth of defensive help while keeping the offensive machine intact.
Model Profile
#1
JP+ Rank
#8
Offense
#3
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
9.5
Market
9.5
JP+
10.2
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
84% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 100%. Collapse risk 4% (7 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk7: 94% to 52%.
Bull Case
11-1If the transfer defensive front gels quickly and the passing game rediscovers its rhythm without Tate, this group has the pieces to win the conf…
Bear Case
8-4If integration lags behind talent, a one-loss ceiling could still mean watching someone else hoist the trophy again.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Michigan | 7.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 |