Parker Navarro is gone, off to a professional career after producing 117.0 PPA a season ago, and Ohio now hands the offense to the new signal-caller with almost no returning target share to lean on. Chase Hendricks left for Cal, Rodney Harris II left for Oklahoma State, and Sieh Bangura is also out of the backfield mix, which means the passing game built around Navarro's favorite targets simply doesn't exist anymore. The portal churn was significant — 16 departures worth 232.9 PPA lost against 18 arrivals worth just 8.6 PPA gained, headlined by running back Victor Rosa's move from UConn. That kind of value gap, paired with an offensive line reset and a defense replacing coverage pieces after a moderate attrition hit, lines up with a below-average offense and defense and bottom-tier special teams. Ohio went 8-4 last year, but the pieces that got them there — particularly the passing attack — are largely scattered elsewhere now.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins, a step down from that 8-4 mark, and the schedule explains some of the gap: road trips to Nebraska, Miami (OH), and South Alabama all qualify as difficult outs, while Sacramento State, Ball State, and Stonehill offer the clearest paths to wins. The offensive line sits at just 56% returning production and the receiving corps returns only 4% of its target share, which is why this projects as a team defined by uncertainty rather than continuity. If the new starting quarterback finds quick chemistry with whatever receivers emerge and the offensive line gels faster than the personnel losses suggest, 8 or 9 wins is still in range. If the passing game stalls behind an unproven line and a defense still replacing coverage pieces, this could be a step back toward .500 or worse.