JP+ One-Sheet
Ohio
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.5Team Thesis
Ohio Must Replace Its Quarterback and Its Top Receivers All at Once. Parker Navarro is gone, off to a professional career after producing 117.0 PPA a season ago, and Ohio now hands the offense to the new signal-caller with almost no returning target…
Model Profile
#111
JP+ Rank
#114
Offense
#107
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
6.5
Market
6.5
JP+
7.0
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Soft landing
35% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 75%. Collapse risk 9% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk13: 82% to 41%.
Bull Case
8-4If the new starting quarterback finds quick chemistry with whatever receivers emerge and the offensive line gels faster than the personnel losse…
Bear Case
5-7If the passing game stalls behind an unproven line and a defense still replacing coverage pieces, this could be a step back toward .500 or worse.
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Bowling Green | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.3 |