The theme is subtraction and replacement at running back, and an attempt to fortify everywhere else. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are gone to the draft, taking 72 combined PPA with them, a real loss for an offense that leaned on their production in shorter, high-value bursts all fall. But CJ Carr returns as the starter, giving this offense actual continuity at the position that matters most, and the roster overall looks elite in both qualitative components — offense and defense alike graded at the top of the scale, with special teams sitting at a steady, unremarkable average. The portal additions lean toward complementary pieces rather than headline replacements: DJ McKinney arrives from Colorado to help a defensive back room that already profiles as stable, while Quincy Porter and Mylan Graham both come over from Ohio State to reload the receiving corps around Carr. Tionne Gray's arrival from Oregon adds beef to the defensive tackle rotation, an upgrade that matters given how often this program has needed to control the line of scrimmage against physical opponents. Offensive line returns at a high rate — 76% by continuity metrics — even as target continuity sits low, which suggests Carr will be throwing to a lot of new faces even if the pass protection in front of him stays mostly familiar.

JP+ projects 10.1 wins out of 12, a number that lines up with a team pegged as a top-10 playoff lock but one that still has to navigate a schedule with real teeth. Miami at home, a trip to BYU, and SMU visiting South Bend stand out as the toughest three tests, while Boston College, Stanford, and Rice at home offer buffer on the other end. The gap between projection and public perception, if any exists, likely traces back to the running back turnover — losing 93.3 PPA across 21 departures is a notable number, even with only 16.1 PPA arriving to offset it, and defenses on the schedule will test whether the ground game can replace Love and Price's juice. If the receiving corps gels quickly and the defensive front lives up to its billing with Gray in the mix, the ceiling here is a run deep into the playoff. If the backfield production doesn't materialize and target continuity issues linger into October, 10 wins with an early playoff exit is the more likely outcome.