JP+ One-Sheet

Notre Dame

FBS Independents | 2026

Projected Wins

10.1

Model Profile

#6

JP+ Rank

#5

Off Adj

#9

Def Adj

Overall

+21.6

Offense

+10.8

Defense

+9.8

Win Total Context

11.5

Market

10.1

JP+

10.8

SP+

Bowl Path100%

Fast Start55%

Collapse Risk23%

Path Shape

Bowl live

55% to start 6-0 or better. Bowl path 100%. Collapse risk 23% (9 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk7: 95% to 70%.

FBS Independents Win Totals

Team	JP+	Mkt	SP+
Notre Dame	10.1	11.5	10.8
UConn	6.5	5.5	5.2