JP+ One-Sheet

Notre Dame

FBS Independents | 2026

Projected Wins

10.1

Team Thesis

Notre Dame Reshapes the Backfield and Trusts CJ Carr to Carry a Talented Roster. The theme is subtraction and replacement at running back, and an attempt to fortify everywhere else.

Model Profile

JP+ Rank

Offense

Defense

+21.5

Overall

+10.8

Offense

+9.8

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

11.5

Market

10.1

JP+

10.8

SP+

JP+ GAP: -1.4 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#6

Rated coverage89%

Candidate members87

Rated players77

Season Path

Bowl live

Bowl path100%

6-0 start55%

Collapse risk23%

55% to start 6-0 or better. Bowl path 100%. Collapse risk 23% (9 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk10: 89% to 63%.

Bull Case

12-0

If the receiving corps gels quickly and the defensive front lives up to its billing with Gray in the mix, the ceiling here is a run deep into th…

Bear Case

9-3

If the backfield production doesn't materialize and target continuity issues linger into October, 10 wins with an early playoff exit is the more…

FBS Independents Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Notre Dame	10.1	11.5	10.8
UConn	6.4	5.5	5.1