Rob Harley takes over a program that went 3-9 in 2025, and the internal promotion means continuity in approach even as the roster underneath him churns. Josh Holst returns at quarterback, which should have been the anchor point for stability, but the offense around him took real hits: DeAree Rogers (36.6 PPA) and Gary Givens III both left as receivers via the portal, and Jaylen Poe departed for Georgia State after producing at running back. Twenty scholarship players left in all, only four arrived, and the ledger shows 41.5 PPA walking out the door against effectively nothing walking in. JP+ still rates this roster bottom-tier on both offense and defense, with special teams the lone area of average standing, and the underlying continuity read backs that up — target and role replacement sit near 50%, offensive line retention is stronger at 65%, but coverage attrition on defense is pronounced enough to flag real fragility in the secondary.

JP+ projects 4.0 wins over a 12-game slate, and the schedule explains both the number and the uncertainty around it. Road trips to Iowa, Arizona, and UNLV offer little cushion, while home dates with UTEP and Illinois State, plus a trip to Georgia State, represent the clearest paths to results. The gap between what the model sees and what a full season could look like comes down to whether Harley's staff can stabilize a defense that lost depth through coverage attrition and whether the offense can survive its concentration risk without its top departed skill players. If the secondary holds up and Holst's supporting cast gels quickly, NIU can push past the number. If not, another season in the bottom tier of the Mountain West is the more likely outcome.