JP+ One-Sheet
Northern Illinois
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
4.0
Model Profile
#130
JP+ Rank
#131
Off Adj
#123
Def Adj
Overall
-15.3
Offense
-9.3
Defense
-5.8
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
4.0
JP+
3.6
SP+
Bowl Path11%
Fast Start68%
Collapse Risk4%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
68% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 11%. Collapse risk 4% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 89% to 5%.
Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| UNLV | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| New Mexico | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| San Jose State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UTEP | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |