JP+ One-Sheet
Northern Illinois
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
4.1Team Thesis
Northern Illinois Enters the Rob Harley Era With Thin Margins on Both Sides. Rob Harley takes over a program that went 3-9 in 2025, and the internal promotion means continuity in approach even as the roster underneath him churns.
Model Profile
#129
JP+ Rank
#131
Offense
#124
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
4.1
JP+
3.6
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.6 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#126
Rated coverage64%
Candidate members64
Rated players41
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path13%
2-4 start71%
Collapse risk3%
71% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 13%. Collapse risk 3% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 88% to 5%.
Bull Case
6-6If the secondary holds up and Holst's supporting cast gels quickly, NIU can push past the number.
Bear Case
3-9If not, another season in the bottom tier of the Mountain West is the more likely outcome.
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| UTEP | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 |